The College Football Playoff semifinals are right here, and I actually could not be extra enthusiastic about these video games.
First, seventh-seeded Notre Dame will tackle sixth-seeded Penn State within the Orange Bowl on Thursday evening. A day later, No. 8 seed Ohio State and No. 5 seed Texas will meet within the Cotton Bowl; I truly predicted these two groups to fulfill within the nationwide championship recreation in the beginning of the season.
I sense that one in all these video games shall be a little bit of a decent battle, whereas the opposite one may be extra decisive. I’ve acquired a superb observe file this season, going 54-33 in my picks towards the unfold.
The expanded CFP has been unbelievable thus far. Let’s hope these two video games proceed the joy.
Orange Bowl: Notre Dame (-1.5) vs. Penn State (Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
One factor that turned very apparent in Notre Dame’s win over Georgia within the Sugar Bowl is that it is constructed for the CFP. It is a quick and bodily group that is constructed within the mould of a group that may win a championship.
I really feel like that about Penn State as effectively, however I really feel that far more about Notre Dame. The Irish have been quick and bodily on the line of scrimmage within the quarterfinals, making it tough for the Bulldogs to win the battle within the trenches. That is one thing we might’ve by no means mentioned a couple of Notre Dame-Georgia matchup up to now, nevertheless it rang true this season.
It is fairly outstanding what Notre Dame has executed via all of its adversity. It misplaced two beginning offensive linemen, two beginning edge rushers, All-American cornerback Benjamin Morrison and defensive deal with Rylie Mills through the season. It nonetheless has standout security Xavier Watts, however Notre Dame is enjoying so effectively and defeated Georgia comparatively handily regardless of lacking these key gamers. That speaks to the depth that head coach Marcus Freeman has been capable of attain and develop. It truly is an unbelievable roster.
Notre Dame’s depth shall be examined towards Penn State. James Franklin has been constructing towards this second for years. It wasn’t that way back that it misplaced handily to Ohio State and Michigan in convention play. It acquired very shut towards Ohio State this 12 months and almost took down Oregon within the Big Ten Championship Recreation.
[Read more: James Franklin, Marcus Freeman set to make college football history, more to come]
Now, Penn State must win. The wins over SMU and Boise State have been video games it ought to’ve received. Thursday is a tipping-point recreation for this program.
There are well being questions on each side of this recreation. Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter is the massive one. It is questionable whether or not he’ll be capable of go or be 100% with that arm/shoulder harm. He should be capable of be on the sphere for Penn State to win. That was evident towards Boise State. Carter’s influence on the sport is felt in a significant method as a result of he is such a disruptive drive on the line of scrimmage. He performs as a free disruptor, lining up as a linebacker, defensive finish and on the within of the line of defense. That makes it tough for offenses to get a beat on easy methods to cease him. Carter’s presence is such an enormous a part of Penn State’s defensive success on this recreation as effectively due to Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard’s dual-threat skill.
On the opposite facet, Irish operating again Jeremiyah Love is coping with a knee concern. He is a dynamic again, and I feel he may need been even higher if Notre Dame had a greater passing recreation. I wasn’t assured in Love’s skill within the observe clips I noticed this week, as he regarded clunky with that knee brace on. It appears to be like like he is transferring at three-quarters velocity and mushy on how he is rounding cones and turning cuts. So, I battle to imagine that he’ll be as efficient as we have grown accustomed to. Love is anticipated to play, however I assumed operating again Jadarian Price was efficient towards Georgia, too. Ohio State and Oregon’s operating backs have been key in its wins over Penn State, so I feel Notre Dame is admittedly going to wish Love and Value to be efficient on Thursday.
I count on Penn State to place an honest quantity of strain on Leonard. Georgia was efficient at pressuring Leonard, however I feel the quarterback’s expertise helped Notre Dame early on. Notre Dame’s passing recreation is not nice, although, so that ought to assist Penn State get some strain.
Flipping the models round, I do not suppose it is a excellent matchup for Penn State. I’ve requested Franklin up to now what he thinks holds his group again. His reply is constant, sometimes saying that Penn State would not have that one receiver that it may depend on in a giant scenario. You sometimes want that sort of participant within the CFP. For Penn State, it is tight finish Tyler Warren. If it is a tight finish and never a participant on the skin, the secondary can focus higher on only one man. Notre Dame’s secondary is excellent, and that part favors the Irish.
The largest key for every group would be the skill to decelerate the opposing group’s run recreation. Both sides wants its run recreation to actually get going, but each defenses have executed a terrific job at stopping the run in the previous couple of video games. Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty ran for a season-low 104 yards on 30 carries towards Penn State within the Fiesta Bowl. Notre Dame held Indiana and Georgia to lower than 65 speeding yards.
So, when you think about Penn State’s robust speeding protection, Notre Dame’s blueprint to successful shall be to ascertain Leonard because the run recreation. Notre Dame was best towards Georgia when it ran run-pass choices, but when Leonard goes to drop again and move, that’ll favor Penn State in a serious method. Notre Dame wants to include Leonard inside the run recreation to assist make up for a compromised Love. If Leonard will be efficient at operating the ball early, that can open Notre Dame’s skill to successfully use RPOs and throw the ball.
Defensively, Notre Dame’s blueprint shall be to remove PSU RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen whereas doubling Warren. That is the entire recreation plan. It is an inside recreation plan. You reside with no matter occurs outdoors the numbers.
Can Notre Dame decelerate the Penn State run recreation?
If both of these issues occurs, Penn State wins. That is why Penn State’s blueprint to win — at the very least offensively — is the mandate that Franklin gave offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki when he employed him this previous offseason: get the ball to the highest gamers, particularly in massive video games. This is not a recreation the place Penn State can see if gamers apart from Allen, Singleton and Warren can succeed. Penn State cannot imagine that Drew Allar goes to show right into a constant drop-back passer at this stage of the season.
Defensively, Penn State has to drive Notre Dame right into a scenario the place Leonard has to drop again and move. The extra second-and-longs Notre Dame faces, the higher for Penn State.
Finally, I feel this recreation shall be tight. So, who do I belief? I belief Freeman and the Preventing Irish extra. Situationally, Notre Dame understands easy methods to carry out and execute. It additionally is aware of its strengths and leans into them. That is my largest hang-up with Penn State. The Nittany Lions have not performed to their strengths within the largest moments at occasions this 12 months.
Decide: Notre Dame 24, Penn State 20 (Notre Dame -1.5)
Cotton Bowl: Ohio State (-5.5) vs. Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Ohio State is enjoying one of the best soccer within the nation and the unfold on this recreation is indicative of that, as this matchup is being performed within the coronary heart of Texas. In reality, I feel the truth that this recreation is being performed in Arlington is maintaining this line low. That is how good the Buckeyes have been currently.
I imagine this recreation shall be virtually received or misplaced within the first quarter. Ohio State has the power and mindset to show into the identical method it defeated Tennessee and Oregon. So, Texas’ No. 1 purpose needs to be to outlive the primary quarter. Texas needs to be ready for the onslaught and aggressiveness Ohio State will open with with a purpose to win this recreation.
Ohio State’s protection has been robust. The one success that Tennessee and Oregon had offensively was eluding its move rush and connecting with secondary choices on passing performs. Neither group discovered success by way of its base offense.
Offensively, Ohio State has discovered success by being aggressive within the passing recreation early this postseason, attacking in area to take commanding early leads. That has allowed it to have success within the operating recreation later. Ohio State has deserted the zone run recreation that we’re used to seeing from head coach Ryan Day run as a result of it would not have the offensive line to do this. Neither of these issues is one of the best factor that is happening for Ohio State. It has completely modified psychologically, enjoying extra freely and simply after its loss to Michigan. It is enjoying unfastened and with a little bit of anger all through the final two video games.
As for Texas, I’ve cherished this group for fairly some time. I’ve thought it may win the nationwide title ever since its blowout win at Michigan. Steve Sarkisian is constructing one thing nice at Texas, as this group appears to be like to compete for nationwide titles past 2024, however there are some points with this explicit Texas group. These points pop up when Texas goes up towards a group that may beat its offensive line. Georgia did that a few occasions, as did Arizona State. That is the place the issue lies for Texas. Ohio State’s run protection is prime 5 within the nation, and I feel it is higher than Georgia and Arizona State. That Ohio State protection has performed extremely effectively within the CFP, too. The Buckeyes had eight sacks and 13 tackles for loss of their Rose Bowl win.
When Texas’ run recreation is taken away, the dynamic nature of its play choice modifications. As an alternative of with the ability to use play-action, QB Quinn Ewers has to placed on his cape. He was ready to do this towards Arizona State, however he could not do this towards Georgia. Ohio State has taken away its opposing quarterbacks’ first learn, which might make Ewers maintain the ball longer for an additional beat and make it much more tough for him to place his cape on and have success.
So, I am not assured that Texas’ offensive line goes to have numerous success towards Ohio State. I feel this Texas offense will look extra just like the one we noticed towards Georgia. I’ve been extra impressed with Ewers currently, although, and Ewers must present out.
Will Ohio State’s protection cease Texas & Quinn Ewers?
This Ohio State offense can’t be stopped. The wedding of Day and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s offensive kinds has been stunning. You have to be disruptive as a protection, and it’s a must to hope QB Will Howard performs the way in which he did towards Michigan and never the way in which he has the previous two video games. Howard’s movie from the Rose Bowl was one of the best movie he has ever put out. I really feel like Howard’s play within the CFP — throwing 5 touchdowns over the 2 video games, as he is related with Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka for large performs — has been one of many extra under-discussed storylines to this point this postseason.
I do not see Ohio State taking its foot off the fuel, and Texas hasn’t regarded like its full self within the again half of the 12 months. The dominoes that need to fall in Texas’ favor are too many and there are various paths to victory for Ohio State. If Ohio State continues to play the way in which it has performed, it ought to win this recreation.
Decide: Ohio State 35, Texas 21 (Ohio State -5.5)
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports activities’ lead faculty soccer recreation analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Observe him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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