Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have historical past.
In Sunday’s AFC Championship Recreation, the famous person quarterbacks will sq. off for the ninth time — and it will be a tiebreaker of kinds, with every participant sitting at 4 wins. However, in fact, not all wins are measured equally. Mahomes is 3-0 within the postseason towards Buffalo, and that is what makes this such an important matchup for Allen’s legacy. Their rivalry in the end will not be considered as a lot of a rivalry if one QB by no means wins the significant video games.
The showdown assures that one in all them will probably be within the Tremendous Bowl and serves because the nightcap for what must be a charming Championship Sunday. Within the NFC, one crew has arguably one of the best roster in soccer, whereas the opposite boasts the best rookie QB in NFL history.
In preparation for Bills–Chiefs and Commanders–Eagles, FOX Sports activities NFL writers Ben Arthur and Henry McKenna engaged in a spirited dialog centered on Sunday’s 4 beginning quarterbacks and the way the title video games may unfold.
Josh Allen has been statistically superior to Patrick Mahomes for 2 full seasons now. Have you ever reached the purpose the place you anticipate Allen to outperform Mahomes, even within the postseason?
Ben Arthur: Probably not. Not whereas Mahomes stays in a distinct class with regards to postseason soccer. Not solely is he 3-0 towards Allen within the playoffs, however he’ll be enjoying in his seventh straight AFC Championship Recreation. Mahomes is at his easiest when the lights are brightest. In the end, that is all that actually issues, even when his uncooked stats within the common season have not essentially been what they have been earlier in his tenure as Chiefs QB1.
Henry McKenna: Yeah, Mahomes is a back-to-back Tremendous Bowl champion due to his distinctive potential to shut video games within the postseason. So, the expectation for any postseason recreation is that he’ll outperform the opposing QB. However I do not know, I nonetheless suppose Allen goes to play higher this weekend. I wrote earlier this week that I anticipate the Payments to win. If that is going to occur, it’s going to be as a result of Allen performed higher than Mahomes — which might be all of the extra spectacular since KC’s protection is healthier than Buffalo’s.
Arthur: Even when Allen outplays Mahomes, are we positive the Payments are going to win? Mahomes is so good on the margins and in situational soccer in large video games that even when Allen’s uncooked numbers look higher, it may not be sufficient. Gotta understand that Kansas Metropolis had its fireplace lit when these groups met in November, which is the one time the Chiefs’ starters have misplaced previously 24 video games. Since that Week 11 matchup, Mahomes has 12 passing touchdowns and nil giveaways.
We are able to discuss all we would like about this being Allen’s “time” to lastly beat Mahomes within the playoffs, however Mahomes & Co. actually aren’t it that manner.
McKenna: The Payments beat the Chiefs as soon as this season. The Buffalo teaching employees appears to be bettering by way of late-game administration, which has been their weak point in earlier years towards KC.
Allen is as cool, calm and picked up as we have ever seen him. It isn’t arbitrarily “his time.” It is that his recreation has hit some extent the place he is by no means been extra succesful. He ought to win this recreation.
Arthur: Would one postseason win towards Mahomes in 4 tries hastily make Allen the higher participant? I do not find out about that.
After all, Allen’s progress has been unimaginable, and he is actually performed higher than Mahomes previously couple of normal seasons. However I feel extra weight must be placed on Mahomes’ greatness within the playoffs, a résumé that Allen cannot stand as much as proper now. So, I would suppose any discuss of Allen being considered as the higher participant by fashionable opinion could be extra that persons are sick of seeing Mahomes’ success.
McKenna: Effectively, Mahomes is the better participant. Little question.
However higher? Proper now? At this precise second? I am unsure. When he did not have elite weapons (and Travis Kelce regarded diminished) earlier this 12 months, Mahomes wasn’t a top-10 QB. All 12 months, Allen hasn’t had elite weapons. And he is been a top-two QB.
Allen has been the higher participant this season. I really suppose Mahomes’ greatness obscures the analysis of his present physique of labor.
What particularly do you suppose Mahomes does higher than Allen at this level of their careers?
McKenna: Mahomes is definitely nonetheless barely higher on third and fourth downs, based on EPA (anticipated factors added) per dropback. Mahomes runs just a little safer than Allen — however no much less effectively. I would give Mahomes the sting in situational consciousness and decision-making, too, even when Allen has progressed to the purpose the place it is excruciatingly shut.
They’re extraordinarily comparable gamers. And if Allen had a head-to-head win over Mahomes within the postseason, it’d even be the favored opinion that Allen is the higher participant.
Arthur: Mahomes is a extra correct quarterback than Allen — by way of each completion charge and on-target throw charge — although you’ll be able to argue that Mahomes’ reliance on the quick and intermediate recreation the previous couple of years skew these numbers in his favor. His largest benefit over Allen is in psychological acuity and situational consciousness, which is not all the time simple to quantify. In most classes, I’ll say, Allen has both surpassed or met Mahomes in.
Who between them will want extra from their supporting solid to prevail Sunday?
Arthur: Undoubtedly Mahomes. The championship blueprint the Chiefs have actually offers them an edge, however the actuality is that the Payments have regarded just like the significantly better and extra dominant crew this season, even when Kansas Metropolis has extra wins.
The 35-year-old Kelce was the one one to point out up for the Chiefs within the passing recreation within the divisional spherical. Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy and others are going to must step as much as take the strain off him. Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco want to come back up large out of the backfield, too. They mixed for lower than 70 speeding yards final week. I am not nervous about Kansas Metropolis’s protection — the move rush delivered eight sacks towards Houston — however the offense wants extra, for positive.
McKenna: Ben, I believed we would agree right here!? From my vantage level, the Chiefs’ protection is healthier, high to backside, and the Chiefs’ playmakers are higher, given the ascent we have seen in manufacturing from Xavier Worthy and Kelce. The Payments have the higher offensive line. And, as I have been saying, I feel Buffalo may have the higher QB on Sunday.
In that sense, I feel Allen will want extra assist as a result of he is going up towards a greater protection with worse weapons. However I take your level, too, in that Allen hasn’t actually wanted a lot assist to get this far. Mahomes, in the meantime, hasn’t met expectations with out assist.
Let’s transfer on to Sunday’s matinée between the Commanders and Eagles. What number of starters throughout the league are you assured in saying are higher than rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels?
McKenna: Sheesh. That is a troublesome one.
Daniels retains ascending, however C.J. Stroud serves as a cautionary story of enjoying prisoner to the second. (This 12 months was not tremendous spectacular after an unimaginable rookie 12 months.) So … making an attempt to place that out of thoughts, I would take Daniels to win a recreation for me on Sunday over all however the next QBs: Allen, Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow.
I actually wished to incorporate Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff, however Daniels simply beat these guys. I wished to incorporate Justin Herbert, however he flopped within the wild-card spherical. And Jordan Love? Not constant sufficient.
Taking a look at that checklist, I can not consider it. It reframes how sizzling Daniels is correct now.
Arthur: For as a lot as we have disagreed all through this banter, Henry, we’re really on the identical web page about Daniels (!).
I’ve the identical checklist of 5 quarterbacks that I am not able to take him over: Mahomes, Burrow, Jackson, Stafford and Allen.
As famous, Stroud’s regression from his rookie 12 months cannot be misplaced in our eagerness to heap reward on Daniels. However his calmness in strain moments — each his bodily demeanor and efficiency — is so spectacular. It exceeds what Stroud did final season. Examine this: Daniels’ 108.5 passer score in 9 highway video games in 2024 (together with the playoffs), is one of the best by a rookie in league historical past. He is the fourth rookie quarterback since 1950 to win a number of playoff video games.
Daniels has a case for being one of the best present quarterback within the NFC, although I give Stafford the seniority edge within the clutch.
Does Daniels must be one of the best participant on the sector for the Commanders to beat the Eagles? What’s your prediction for the NFC title recreation?
Arthur: These Commanders are so arduous to depend out due to Daniels, however I am going Eagles right here.
I simply do not consider that Washington can comprise Saquon Barkley, who carried Philly to a number of victories this season and is coming off a 205-yard speeding efficiency towards the Rams. The Commanders have struggled stopping the run all 12 months — ranked thirtieth in rush protection throughout the common season — and Barkley had 296 speeding yards and 4 touchdowns on 5.3 yards per carry towards Washington in two regular-season matchups. No matter how properly Daniels performs, I do not suppose he’ll have the ball lengthy sufficient to guide the Commanders to a different upset.
McKenna: Identical to I caught with the Payments and Chiefs’ regular-season consequence, I’ll stick to the Commanders and Eagles’ newest consequence.
I feel Washington wins. It goes towards the logic a part of my mind that is telling me: Daniels is just too younger to get to the Tremendous Bowl. However Daniels is 24. He is solely two years youthful than Jalen Hurts. He is the identical age Hurts was when he went to the Tremendous Bowl (and the identical age as Brock Purdy was final 12 months within the Tremendous Bowl).
Saquon Barkley has gotten the Eagles by means of a really, very, very bizarre season, from Nick Siriani trash-talking followers to A.J. Brown trash-talking Jalen Hurts to Brown figuring out the Amazon best-seller checklist. However we’re within the part of the postseason the place QBs matter most. And, as we mentioned earlier, we each like Daniels over Hurts. He has been significantly better within the second half of the season, however the counting stats present … mediocrity.
Give me Daniels. Give me Washington.
Arthur: Hurts’ knee harm popping out of the divisional spherical does him no favors, both. A banged-up Hurts, who at full energy appears to be like just like the inferior quarterback anyway, shouldn’t be nice information for Philly.
However I am actually keen on how Daniels responds on this stage. We won’t overlook how dominant the Eagles’ move protection has been simply because the No. 2 choose has been so good in strain moments. Philly ranked first in complete move protection and second in passing EPA per play allowed throughout the common season. Daniels hasn’t confronted a secondary like this.
You add that to the Commanders’ exploitable protection, Washington’s Cinderella story has an excellent probability of coming to an finish.
Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports activities. He beforehand labored for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Community, the place he was the Titans beat author for a 12 months and a half. He lined the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for 3 seasons (2018-20) previous to transferring to Tennessee. You’ll be able to comply with Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
Previous to becoming a member of FOX Sports activities as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years masking the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports activities Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Observe him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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