Premier League predictions and best bets: Destruct...

Our soccer betting professional Jones Is aware of supplies his perception throughout the Premier League weekend and ideas Manchester Metropolis to win an exciting Manchester derby.

Manchester United vs Manchester Metropolis, Saturday 12.30pm, dwell on Sky Sports activities

Pep Guardiola is having fun with taking part in along with his shiny new toy.

Antonie Semenyo has hit the bottom operating at Manchester Metropolis and his anytime goalscorer angle for this Manchester derby at 15/8 with Sky Wager actually appeals.

What actually stood out within the win at Newcastle was how totally different Semenyo makes this Manchester Metropolis assault look. Metropolis have brilliance, management and construction popping out of their ears however what they do not all the time have is uncooked, aggressive directness. Semenyo brings that in bucketloads.

Defenders are obsessive about Erling Haaland – that’s solely going to assist Semenyo. It creates pockets of area and Semenyo is intelligent sufficient and aggressive sufficient to take advantage of them. Whether or not he is beginning huge left, drifting inside from the fitting or ghosting in round Haaland, he is always sniffing hazard quite than ready for it.

And, for no matter motive, area appears to open up for him in opposition to Manchester United and he revels in it. Semenyo has scored in his final three appearances in opposition to United, together with that bonkers 4-4 draw at Outdated Trafford earlier this season.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Antonie Semenyo to attain (15/8 with Sky Wager)

Chelsea vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!

Brentford rocking up at Stamford Bridge would not really feel like a mismatch anymore – in truth, it is turning into a fixture they quietly stay up for. They’ve misplaced simply as soon as of their final eight visits throughout west London and that tells you every thing concerning the mentality of this group. There isn’t any concern.

And proper now, they’re completely buzzing.

Brentford are in the midst of their finest unbeaten Premier League run of the season – six video games with out defeat, profitable 4 of the final 5. And since December 14, no Premier League group has picked up extra factors than the Bees (14). They’re 11/10 with Sky Wager on the double likelihood.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Leeds vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm

Leeds are a terrific watch and their video games are fairly chaotic by design. They play on the sting, get in your face and so they ask questions of the opposition, however additionally they invite strain. Throughout their final 18 fixtures their video games are averaging 3.5 targets and so they’ve saved only one clear sheet in that interval.

Fulham arrive as the right dance companion to punt on targets with over 2.5 wanting very beneficiant at 11/10 with Sky Wager.

They’ve scored of their final 12 matches throughout all competitions, exhibiting a degree of attacking consistency that travels properly. Marco Silva’s aspect do not want enormous dominance to seek out the web both – they’re sharp in transition, intelligent within the half-spaces and harmful from huge areas.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Over 2.5 targets (11/10 with Sky Wager)

Liverpool vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!

Arne Slot’s Liverpool are starting to appear like a critical group once more.

The massive shift has come of their construction in defence. Slot has clearly prioritised management with out the ball, giving Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate correct safety in entrance of them quite than leaving them uncovered, which in flip has reduce out the foolish errors costing them targets.

Throughout their final eight video games, Liverpool have conceded simply 5 targets. That is not smoke and mirrors both. The anticipated targets in opposition to knowledge backs it up properly at 0.8 per 90, pointing to a aspect that’s limiting high-quality possibilities quite than counting on last-ditch defending or goalkeeping heroics.

While you mix Liverpool’s improved defensive course of with Burnley’s restricted attacking menace, Liverpool to win to nil shapes up as a shrewd play at 10/11 with Sky Wager.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Sunderland vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!

Crystal Palace arrive off the again of that damaging FA Cup exit, knocked out within the third spherical by non-league Macclesfield. The instinctive response is to count on a fierce response. However historical past strongly pushes again in opposition to that concept.

Wanting on the final 13 Premier League groups dumped out by League One opposition or under at that stage, the next-game document reads poorly: three wins, 4 attracts and 6 defeats. And even these three wins had been by the naked minimal – a single-goal margin. There is not any proof of a bounce-back surge. If something, the hangover lingers.

Sunderland stay unbeaten at house this season – a run constructed on vitality, construction and a crowd that turns the Stadium of Gentle into a really uncomfortable place to go to. They give the impression of being a terrific value on the draw no guess at 10/11 with Sky Wager.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

Tottenham vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm

Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville are the livewires for West Ham. Cease them, and also you largely cease West Ham.

The issue for the guests is that they are operating right into a Tottenham aspect particularly designed to take that weapon away.

One of many defining traits of Thomas Frank’s Spurs is how properly they handle transition moments. They do not permit video games to change into stretched, they get well their form rapidly and so they suffocate counter-attacks earlier than they ever get going. That is backed up by the numbers.

Throughout the season, Spurs have conceded the second-fewest quick breaks within the league (11) – and crucially, they have not conceded a single purpose from a quick break.

There’s additionally a really robust angle beneath Frank in that 9 of his 10 wins as Spurs boss have come to nil. When Tottenham win, they do not simply win, they shut the door. It is 2/1 with Sky Wager to land once more.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Tottenham to win to nil (2/1 with Sky Wager)

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6!

Gabriel Magalhaes is quietly turning into a magnet for fouls. Not as a result of he is theatrical, however due to how Arsenal use him. He steps in aggressively throughout build-up, carries the ball ahead into strain and is continually concerned in bodily duels at set items. That mixture naturally invitations contact and referees have been completely happy to blow the whistle.

The latest numbers underline that development. Gabriel has been fouled at the very least as soon as in 9 of his final 10 begins, averaging 1.53 fouls drawn per 90. That is a wholesome baseline for a centre-back, and it places the two+ fouls line properly inside attain in the fitting kind of sport at 11/4 with Sky Wager. Right here, he is arising in opposition to Igor Jesus.

The Forest striker is aggressive, uncooked and nonetheless studying when to step in and when to again off. He is dedicated 22 fouls throughout his latest matches.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Gabriel to be fouled +2 occasions (11/4 with Sky Wager)

Wolves vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, dwell on Sky Sports activities – PLAY SUPER 6!

Wolves have quietly change into a really troublesome group to attain in opposition to. The standout development of their latest performances is defensive enchancment, and it is backed up by critical underlying numbers.

Throughout their final six video games, solely Arsenal can higher Wolves’ anticipated targets in opposition to technique of 0.99 per 90. That is elite territory. Wolves have confronted Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United in that spell. So whereas the pattern dimension is small, the standard of opposition provides these numbers actual credibility.

We all know Newcastle are a really totally different proposition away from St James’ Park – and it is the attacking drop-off that is most placing. Of their final 17 Premier League away video games, they’ve scored greater than 1.5 targets simply thrice.

On common, Newcastle are managing simply 1.2 targets per away sport in that run, struggling to generate sustained strain or high-quality possibilities on their travels. The 6/5 with Sky Wager on them scoring beneath 1.5 targets once more on the street appears a winner in ready.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Aston Villa vs Everton, Sunday 4.30pm, dwell on Sky Sports activities – PLAY SUPER 6!

David Moyes’ document away from house in opposition to top-level opposition is horrendous.

Going all the best way again to his West Ham days, his document away at Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester Metropolis reads 20 losses from 21 video games. It is a brutal return.

These video games are likely to comply with the identical script too: sit deep, restrict injury, sluggish the tempo and hope to remain within the contest for so long as doable. Now, this fixture would not technically fall into that bracket – however at what level will we begin calling Aston Villa an elite house aspect?

Villa Park has change into a fortress. They’ve received their final 11 house video games, a run that features assertion victories over Arsenal and Manchester Metropolis. The depth, construction and perception Unai Emery has created there’s proper up there with the easiest within the league.

Moyes’ away video games are not often chaotic although. Since returning to Everton, simply two of his 20 away matches have gone over 3.5 targets, with the common sitting at simply 1.8 targets per 90. That is why combining a Villa win and beneath 3.5 targets is smart at 11/10 with Sky Wager.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Brighton vs Bournemouth, Monday 8pm, dwell on Sky Sports activities

Bournemouth’s away video games this season are bonkers. They’re averaging 4.8 targets per sport on the street. Nope, not a typo. Sure, nearly 5 targets per sport.

The markets are totally aligned for targets on this one although, which naturally pushes us towards the anytime goalscorer angle.

And who higher to focus on than Kaoru Mitoma? The Japanese winger is beginning to appear like his outdated sparky, nightmare-for-defenders self. His motion, bursts in behind and intuition for purpose are all again in proof – as proven by his purpose vs Manchester Metropolis.

Historical past provides us much more confidence. Mitoma has scored 5 targets in his final six video games in opposition to Bournemouth – that little bit of a psychological edge over the opposition is not factored into the costs at 5/2 with Sky Wager.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BET BET: Karou Mitoma to attain (5/2 with Sky Wager)

Jones Is aware of’ finest bets…

• 1pt double on Antonie Semenyo & Karou Mitoma each to attain (9/1 with Sky Wager)
• 1pt double on over 2.5 targets in Leeds vs Fulham & Aston Villa to win and beneath 3.5 targets (7/2 with Sky Wager)
• 1pt on Tottenham to win to nil (2/1 with Sky Wager)
• 1pt on Gabriel to win +2 fouls (11/4 with Sky Wager)